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Kean Catches Menendez in New Jersey Senate Race
July 17, 2006
KEAN CATCHES MENENDEZ IN NEW
JERSEY SENATE RACE,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
INDEPENDENT VOTERS SHIFT TO REPUBLICAN
New Jersey State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican challenger, has
closed the gap with Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez
and now has 40 percent to Menendez' 38 percent in their U.S. Senate
race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released
today. Another 18 percent remain undecided and 48 percent of those
who have selected a candidate say they might change their mind.
This compares to a 43 – 36 percent lead for Sen. Menendez in
a June 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack)
University.
Independent voters have shifted slightly from 37 – 35 percent
for Menendez June 15, to 38 – 33 percent for Kean today, with 23
percent undecided.
In this latest survey, Republicans back Kean 76 – 8 percent,
while Democrats back Menendez 71 – 11 percent.
"As more New Jersey voters focus on the Senate race, the gap
has closed between the rookie Senator, Robert Menendez, and the
challenger who carries one of the great names in state Republican
politics, State Sen. Tom Kean," said Clay F. Richards, assistant
director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"But about half of the voters say they don't know enough about the
candidates to have an opinion, so there is still a lot that has to
be sorted out in this contest before a trend emerges. But already it
is clear that independent voters, who now give Kean a slight edge
after supporting Menendez in the last poll, will play a key role in
this campaign."
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/July 17, 2006 – page 2
"And it is also clear that the budget crisis and the shutting down
of the state government earlier this month had minimal impact on the
Senate race," Richards said.
When asked their opinion of the candidates, 47 percent of New Jersey
voters say they don't know enough about Menendez to form an
opinion. For Kean, 54 percent say they don't know enough.
By a 46 – 26 percent margin, voters agree with Menendez' claim that
Kean is a "George Bush Republican" who would support Bush
Administration policies.
Voters disagree 39 – 25 percent with Kean's claim that
Menendez "is a political party boss who is unethical."
President Bush's Approval
New Jersey voters disapprove 61 – 34 percent of the job President
George W. Bush is doing, compared to 69 – 28 percent June 15.
From July 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 985 registered
voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz,
Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public
service and for research.
For additional data --
www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is
handling his job
as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 31% 19% 42% 32% 36% 27%
Disapprove 30 46 19 29 32 29
DK/NA 39 35 39 39 32 44
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Approve 35% 35% 26% 29% 28%
Disapprove 28 29 34 27 31
DK/NA 37 35 39 43 41
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is
handling his
job as United States Senator?
Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20
2006 2006 2006 2006
Approve 31 37 34 39
Disapprove 30 29 25 19
DK/NA 39 34 41 42
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is
handling his job
as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 34% 74% 11% 27% 41% 28%
Disapprove 61 24 87 66 53 68
DK/NA 5 2 2 7
5 4
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Approve 28% 29% 44% 36% 39%
Disapprove 68 66 49 61 57
DK/NA 4 5 7 3 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is
handling his job
as President?
Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Oct
18 Apr 27
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2006
Approve 34 28 26 31 36 90 26
Disapprove 61 69 69 65 59
7 69
DK/NA 5 3 5 4
5 3 5
5. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Menendez
favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about
him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 18% 12% 30% 15% 23% 14%
Unfavorable 15 24 8 17 20 11
Mixed 18 22 13 20 19 18
Hvn't hrd enough 47 41 49 47 37 56
REFUSED 1 1 - 1
- 1
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Favorable 32% 20% 14% 16% 12%
Unfavorable 14 14 22 13 17
Mixed 17 18 18 18 21
Hvn't hrd enough 37 47 45 52 50
REFUSED 1 1 1 1 0
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Menendez
favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about
him? (* opinion of Congressman Robert Menendez)
Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec
15
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005
*
Favorable 18 20 20 21 16 22
Unfavorable 15 13 12 10
7 10
Mixed 18 16 13 10 12 12
Hvn't hrd enough 47 50 55 57 64 56
REFUSED 1 1 1 2
1 1
6. Is your opinion of State Senator Tom Kean Jr. favorable,
unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 18% 28% 12% 16% 19% 18%
Unfavorable 11 7 18 9 14 8
Mixed 16 14 14 20 15 17
Hvn't hrd enough 54 52 54 54 52 56
REFUSED 1 - 2 1
- 2
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Favorable 18% 21% 20% 9% 20%
Unfavorable 4 13 8 10 13
Mixed 14 15 20 15 17
Hvn't hrd enough 63 50 52 65 49
REFUSED - 2 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Tom Kean Jr. favorable,
unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec
15
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005
Favorable 18 20 16 18 17 20
Unfavorable 11 10 7 6 5 8
Mixed 16 13 14 11 15
9
Hvn't hrd enough 54 56 63 64 64 61
REFUSED 1 1 - 1
1 2
7. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held
today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom
Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Menendez 38% 8% 71% 33% 37%
39%
Kean 40 76 11 38 43 37
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 2
DK/NA 18 11 14 23 16 19
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Menendez 50% 44% 21% 39% 32%
Kean 28 37 53 38 42
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 4 2 3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 - 3
DK/NA 17 16 18 21 21
TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being
held today and
the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr.
the Republican,
for whom would you vote?
Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec
15 Nov 22
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005
Menendez 38 43 40 40 38 44 41
Kean Jr. 40 36 34 36 36 38 39
SMONE ELSE 2 2 2 3 1
- 1
WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 3 2 2
2 1
DK/NA 18 17 20 19 22 16 18
8. (If candidate choice on q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think
you might change your mind before the election?
CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q7..
CAND OF CHOICE
Tot RM TK
Made up 52% 55% 48%
Might change 48 44 51
DK/NA 1 1 1
9. Robert Menendez has said that Tom Kean Jr. is a George Bush
Republican who would support the Bush administration policies. Do
you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Agree 46% 54% 49% 41% 49% 44%
Disagree 26 26 25 26 26 26
DK/NA 28 20 26 34 26 30
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Agree 39% 46% 44% 49% 51%
Disagree 30 29 24 17 25
DK/NA 30 25 33 34 24
TREND: Robert Menendez has said that Tom Kean Jr. is a George Bush
Republican who would support the Bush administration policies. Do
you agree or disagree?
Jul 17 Jun 15
2006 2006
Agree 46 49
Disagree 26 24
DK/NA 28 27
10. Tom Kean Jr. has said that he thinks Robert Menendez is a
political party boss who is unethical. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Agree 25% 38% 14% 25% 28% 21%
Disagree 39 31 54 35 40 39
DK/NA 36 32 32 40 32 40
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
Agree 20% 25% 32% 21% 24%
Disagree 51 41 31 39 36
DK/NA 28 34 37 40 40
TREND: Tom Kean Jr. recently said that he thinks Robert Menendez is
a political
party boss who is unethical. Do you agree or disagree?
Jul 17 Jun 15
2006 2006
Agree 25 23
Disagree 39 41
DK/NA 36 36
20. As a result of the recent state budget crisis and the state
sales tax increase are you more likely to vote for Robert Menendez
for Senator, less likely to vote for Menendez for Senator, or
doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
More likely 13% 5% 24% 11% 12% 13%
Less likely 17 35 7 15 19 16
Doesn't make a diff 62 56 66 63 62 62
DK/NA 8 4 4 11
7 9
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
More likely 16% 14% 8% 12% 14%
Less likely 11 18 23 13 18
Doesn't make a diff 63 63 63 64 57
DK/NA 10 6 6 11 11
21. As a result of the recent state budget crisis and the state
sales tax increase are you more likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr. for
Senator, less likely to vote for Kean for Senator, or doesn't it
make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
More likely 18% 39% 6% 13% 21% 15%
Less likely 13 3 22 13 12 14
Doesn't make a diff 59 54 65 60 59 59
DK/NA 10 4 7 13 8 12
Philly
Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore
More likely 8% 18% 22% 18% 19%
Less likely 15 14 8 12 15
Doesn't make a diff 67 59 62 59 53
DK/NA 10 9 8 11 12
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